New article "Spatial Perspective on Environmental Migration: Empirical insights from a spatiotemporal approach in the United States, 1970–2010"

Drs. Shuai Zhou, Guangqing Chi, and Chuan Liao have recently published a paper on migratory responses to slow-onset environmental variability in the United States in Demographic Research.

For a long time, the environmental migration literature has made limited efforts to integrate spatial dimensions into environmental migration studies at a finer scale in the United States. It has also lacked assessments of age-specific responses to slow-onset environmental variability. By spatially harmonizing net migration rates (NMRs), precipitation and temperature anomalies (defined as the difference between a decadal average and a 30-year long-run climatic average, divided by the long-run climatic standard deviation), and county-level sociodemographic characteristics, the authors explore the impacts of slow-onset environmental variability on age- and place-specific net migration rates using spatial models.

The findings reveal that rural counties experienced a greater decline in NMRs compared to urban counties as temperature anomalies increased. Meanwhile, NMRs for working-age adults (15–64) showed a decreasing trend as temperature anomalies increased, while NMRs for older adults (65+) showed an increasing trend, primarily in counties with historically cool climates. These results suggest that environmental factors, particularly temperature anomalies, influenced migration patterns in the United States and demonstrated distinct impacts across age groups and the rural-urban dichotomy. 

This paper contributes to a better understanding of how slow-onset environmental variability influences migration patterns across demographic groups and places, and it helps inform targeted population and climate resilience policies.

Read the article here: Spatial perspective on environmental migration: Empirical insights from a spatiotemporal approach in the United States, 1970–2010